Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Silver: Repugs NOT singled out for IRS audits

Silver's sober little analysis tickled my mental "Like" icon.  First, because it's a good lesson on how to be a critical consumer of news and information. Silver reminds us of the statistical principle that "a handful of anecdotal data points are not worth very much in a country of more than 300 million people."  That's too bad for many Republicans, whose political views are shaped by handpicked anecdotes.

Second, because it shows Republicans' criticisms of the "evil" IRS are usually baseless and stupid.

Statistics guru Nate Silver, (the political analyst who predicted with perfect precision how Obama would win the 2012 election), estimates that about 380,000 of Mitt Romney’s voters were audited last year vs. 480,000 of President Obama’s voters.  

Too bad Rush Limbaugh didn't see that before his Friday show when he agreed with a paranoid caller: 
This IRS thing, what's the message? The government's after us.  Conservatives have been put on notice here.  You think this is gonna stop?  This isn't going to stop.  They're just going to find new ways to do this.
And like David Cay Johnston, Silver reminds us that "one-third of [IRS] audits pertained to people who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit, a benefit for low-income taxpayers."  Why?  Because it's easy for the IRS to check up on.  Auditing rich people and corporations is too hard.

The truth is, IRS employees are overworked and underpaid, and their agency is chronically underfunded because of far-right Republicans who equate tax collecting, no matter professionally done, with theft.  Then they turn around and moan about the deficit.


By Nate Silver
May 17, 2013 | New York Times

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Liberals against science are not liberals

Never let it be said that I am not Fair and Balanced!

[T]here is a disturbing and largely unreported trend among influential progressive activists who misinterpret, misrepresent and abuse science to advance their ideological and political agendas.

Well shame on them, too!

Like I always say, statistics and empiricism are what separate true liberals from conservatives, who use anecdotal evidence to bend reality to fit their ideology.

True liberals are comfortable living with temporary uncertainty, until study, data, dialogue and facts uncover the true answers. Conservatives cannot tolerate uncertainty for even a moment; they cannot assume the scientific frame of mind that accepts that what we believe today may be proven wrong tomorrow. Conservatives believe that if it is right today then it must be right forever and ever, amen. And they will suppress, bury or ignore any science that could shatter their ossified beliefs.

This is all to say that any liberal who is anti-science is not a true liberal, by definition.


By Alex Berezow and Hank Campbell
February 4, 2013 | New Scientist

Monday, August 13, 2012

Gun control debate lacks empirical research? Hilarious!

"If policymakers are to have a solid empirical and research base for decisions about firearms and violence, the federal government needs to support a systematic program of data collection and research that specifically addresses that issue," wrote the National Academy of Sciences in 2004.

How blessedly naive is their faith in our policymakers!  As if a lack of information about gun violence is what's preventing reasonable gun control!  

Despite lots of "stale" data like the classic Luby's massacre in Texas in 1991 with 23 killed and 20 wounded, Thurston HS in Oregon in 1998, Columbine HS in Colorado in 1999, the DC snipers in 2002, etc., since 2004, when the NAS pleaded for more research, we've gathered plenty of "data": Red Lake High School in Minnesota; Paradise, PA Amish School; Trolley Square Mall in Utah, Virginia Tech; Northern Illinois University; and more recently the attack on Fort Hood, the Rep. Gabrielle Giffords-Tucson massacre, the Batman movie massacre, and the Sikh temple shooting spree, and on and on.  Still, the problem is that we need more data!....

Seriously though, we Americans are inured to terrible gun violence and shooting rampages.  Only the victims' families give a s**t.  

And gun nuts believe that all this needless carnage is the price we pay for our liberty: "The 2nd Amendment has kept us free for the last 200 years; we can't get rid of it now!" they argue.  (I could just as easily argue that apple cider, or anything else that's been around for the past 200 years, has kept us free, but never mind these logical fallacies....)

Indeed, if you accept the silly premise that firearms are the only thing standing between Americans and tyranny, then certainly, 30,000 gun-related deaths a year is not too great a price to pay.  No price, in terms of body counts, is too dear.  There can be no empirical, rational argument against such an irrational belief.


By Dan Morain
August 10, 2012 | The Sacramento Bee

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

No debating it: In education, class matters

In statistics, this is a slam-dunk correlation:

Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress show that more than 40 percent of the variation in average reading scores and 46 percent of the variation in average math scores across states is associated with variation in child poverty rates.

But I know you conservatives and "school choice" folks eschew statistics and prefer anecdotes about that one charter school, or some movie about over-achieving minority students, when it comes to U.S. education policy.

It's too bad our public and private schools don't teach statistics to over-achieving white kids....


By Helen F. Ladd and Edward B. Fiske
December 11, 2011 | New York Times

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Studies: Charitable giving irrational, favors pain, not totally altruistic

The facts of human beings' emotional, irrational reactions to appeals for charity is just one more reason not to depend on private charity to take care of our brothers and sisters in need.

We should take advantage of government's economies of scale and rely on professional bureaucrats' dispassionate planning to ensure an adequate social safety net for our fellow citizens.


By Alix Spiegel
November 25, 2011 | All Things Considered on NPR

New findings in the science of charity reveals some counter-intuitive results. For instance, people will give more money to a single suffering person than to a population of suffering people, and also give more when some type of physical discomfort — for example, running a marathon — is involved.

GUY RAZ, HOST: This time of year, pleas for donations are as plentiful as eggnog and door-buster sales. Americans give around $300 billion a year to charity. And as NPR's Alix Spiegel reports, psychologists have started to look more closely at when and why we're motivated to give.

ALIX SPIEGEL, BYLINE: The science of charity took off in earnest in the late 1990s, but the series of papers that attempted to understand a puzzling psychological phenomena: When people give to charity, they'll give far more money to a single suffering person than to a population of suffering people, which charity researcher Chris Olivola, of the University of Warwick, says doesn't make a lot of sense.

DR. CHRIS OLIVOLA: You should be more interested in helping more people than fewer, right? You should be more interested in helping 10 sick children than you should be interested in helping one of those 10.

SPIEGEL: But that isn't how it works. In fact, Olivola says tell donors about even two hungry children or give them statistics about hungry children generally and donations will fall by half.

ALLA VOLA: In fact, I think one of the troubling results is if you give people the photo of the child and the statistics, people are less moved than just the child. So, statistics plus photo is just like statistics by itself.

SPIEGEL: These strange findings, says Alla Vola(ph), helped inspire other charity researchers. And last year, Alla Vola and a co-author published many of their resulting studies in a book called "The Science of Giving." This book includes all kinds of surprising experiments, which examine our quirky relationship to charity, including Alla Vola's own work on a kind of charity that now seems completely ordinary: marathoning for a cause.

VOLA: On the face of it, you know, it seems great that people are making this sort of, I would say, sacrifice, but if you stopped and think about, it's kind of puzzling, right?

SPIEGEL: Marathons and other charity events of that kind are essentially asking people to suffer real physical discomfort for the privilege of then giving money, a formula that Alla Vola says probably wouldn't fly in the commercial world. If I'm going to try to sell you a car, I don't ask you to run a race first. But with charity, Alla Vola says, the more you ask people to suffer, the better.

VOLA: When people anticipate they're going to have to suffer to raise money for a charity, then their willingness to contribute to that cause actually goes up.

SPIEGEL: So, for example, in his research, Alla Vola gathered groups of people, gave them each $5 then made it possible for them to contribute a portion of that money to what amounted to a charity. But for half of the participants, there was an additional requirement before they were allowed to donate.

VOLA: If you want to give any money to the group, you're going to have to put both your hands in very, very cold, painfully cold, water for 60 seconds - very painful task.

SPIEGEL: Now, the people who were not asked to suffer only gave about $3; and the people who were asked to suffer?

VOLA: What we found was that people in that condition, the cold water condition, gave more money. They gave four out of five dollars to the group, even though we basically give them incentive not to give.

SPIEGEL: Another interesting new finding comes from an Israeli psychologist at Ben Gurion University named Tehila Kogut. Kogut says that in Israel, like in America, people are constantly bombarded with telephone requests from charities seeking funds. And she says most of her friends have a method for dealing with these calls.

TEHILA KOGUT: They just don't pick up your phone when they don't recognize the number because they don't want to be asked for a donation. They say, why don't you say just no? Well, it's a problem to pick up the phone and say no.

SPIEGEL: To better understand why people avoid saying no, Kogut did a series of studies which ultimately made clear that people give to charity not just out of altruism or empathy but also curiously to protect themselves. Say you're called on a phone by a cancer charity and asked to donate. Well, the very act of being asked, Kogut says, brings on a miniature existential crisis.

KOGUT: They feel that if they say no, the probability that they will have cancer, it will increase. That this is an act of tempting fate.

SPIEGEL: Giving then is in part an attempt to ward off disaster. Now, as for implementing some of these insights, most of the researchers interviewed said that so far relatively few charitable organizations seem to be using the research on giving to shape their appeals. They should, though, Alla Vola says. (unintelligible) has a lot to say about when and why we give. Alix Spiegel, NPR News, Washington.