Showing posts with label Donetsk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Donetsk. Show all posts

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Ukrainian Independence Day parades: Compare & contrast

Whereas Ukraine put on a somber and patriotic Independence Day parade in Kyiv, in traditional national dress, without cursing or mocking anybody...



... the terrorists and rebels in Donetsk garishly paraded Ukrainian POWs on the street to cheers of "fascists," "f-ing demons" and "faggots," then symbolically "washed" the street after them with a water truck:

UPDATE (08.25.2014): The forced march and intentional public humiliation of Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk was likely a war crime under the Geneva Conventions: "Donetsk POW March: When Is A Parade A War Crime?
The misled and brainwashed crowd in Donetsk was ready to tear their brothers apart like animals. 

Reconciliation in Eastern Ukraine will be a decades-long endeavor, but first Ukraine's victory there against Russian aggression must be secured.

Happy Independence Day to my Ukrainian friends!  You have suffered much already; may you endure till the end.  Glory to Ukraine!  Glory to the heroes!  Слава Україні -- Героям слава!


Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Germans have united against their old partner Russia (NYT)


Seventy percent of 1,003 [German] adults polled last week by Infratest dimap for the public broadcaster ARD approved of stricter sanctions; just 15 percent viewed Russia as a reliable partner in a poll with a three-percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Germans are certainly feeling the pain of economic sanctions on Russia, much, much more so than the U.S., but without their leadership in the EU, there cannot be a united European response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. The UK, Netherlands and Eastern European states are not enough; the core of "Old Europe" must be on board.

Clearly, the downing of MH flight 17 was the straw that broke the camel's back vis-a-vis EU and Western public opinion; the attack by Russian-backed fighters in Ukraine showed Russia to be an unpredictable, reckless and dishonest "partner."  

Indeed, said German Social Democrat Gernot Erler, former deputy foreign minister and now commissioner for Russia and former Soviet states:

"The policy of Vladimir Putin is destroying reserves of trust with breathtaking speed. Russia is not naming its goals and has suddenly become unpredictable. And being unpredictable is the greatest enemy of partnership."

That phrase jumped out at me: "Russia is not naming its goals."  That's precisely it.  Putin seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach, with some weapons and fighters here, some diplomatic and economic pressure there, but not really saying what he thinks would be a realistic and desirable outcome for Russia. I suspect that Putin's cagey silence is as much about avoiding uncomfortable questions at home (where feverish nationalism could turn on its master) as it is about keeping the West guessing.

Yes, Putin has urged the establishment in Ukraine of a unique version of "federalism" for "Novorossiya" (Luhansk and Donetsk), where each federal state has its own domestic and foreign policy; but such a confederate (not federal) model would be completely unacceptable for Ukraine and the West, and certainly not practicable: it would make Ukraine a hobbled, disunited state always prone to political infighting. If this is Putin's ultimate goal then it's understandable why he cannot openly say so.


By Alison Smale
August 13, 2014 | New York Times

Sunday, August 10, 2014

The West should tell Russia: 'We don't need you'

There's a chilling, little-known factoid about Putin at the end.  This one's worth reading in full! 

Fortunately, the White House has said publicly that any Russian incursion into Ukraine, even for "humanitarian" or "peacekeeping" purposes, without the formal, express consent and authorization of the Ukraine government would be "unacceptable and a violation of international law."



By Yuri Yarim-Agaev
August 7, 2014 | CNN

The killing of 298 innocent people on board Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was a crime, a consequence of the war against Ukraine that Vladimir Putin started, and which he supplies, directs and controls. The Russian President bears full responsibility for this war, including the downing of the Malaysian airliner.

The main problem with our reaction to Russian aggression is not even the mildness of our sanctions, but the lack of clarity of their purpose. Our message to Putin is very confused. Do we want him completely out of Ukraine, or do we want his help in dealing with that country? They are two very different requests.

Despite Putin's offenses, Western leaders apparently still want him to play an active role in securing peace and stability. According to the White House, on July 17, "President Obama called on President Putin to take concrete steps to de-escalate the situation, including pressing separatists to agree to a cease-fire."

After the Malaysian airliner was shot down, German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Putin to use his influence with the rebels to ensure a cease-fire. In recent appearances on several TV shows, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry asked Putin to take "immediate and clear action to reduce tensions in Ukraine," "to step up and make a difference," and "to use all his influence."

Despite their harsh words for Putin, leaders of the West still want his help. British Prime Minister David Cameron summed it up best when he said: "We sometimes behave as if we need Russia more than Russia needs us."

Putin is only too glad to put on sheep's clothing and assume the role of peacemaker that he has pretended to be throughout the war that he himself started. According to him, annexing Crimea, shooting down airplanes and supporting separatists has only one purpose: to protect the Ukrainian people from alleged right-wing extremists.

If you want Putin's help, beware of what you are asking. He would be glad to broker a "diplomatic solution" with the separatists, thus legitimizing his terrorists and entrenching them on Ukrainian territory.  If that option doesn't work, we can imagine the following completely different scenario: Russian tanks roll over Donetsk. Instead of supporting the separatists, Putin arrests leaders of the Donetsk republic and persecutes them for terrorizing the local population. Blaming the Ukrainian government for its inability to protect people from the terrorists, he establishes full control over the territory, and leaves Russian troops there to secure law, order and tranquility.

[Putin is just devilish enough to try this! - J]

How would the world react to such a "peacekeeping mission"? Would the Ukrainian army fight Russian troops? Would Western political leaders accept this as a plausible option? I do not know. But what is more important, Putin doesn't know either. We should make very clear that we would not accept Putin as a peacekeeper and we want him out of Ukraine.

Western governments should not implicitly accept the aggressive doctrine called the "Russian World," which was endorsed by Putin, and which gives him the right to intervene into the affairs of virtually any sovereign nation, as he did in Ukraine, using the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking citizens.

The major concern of Western leaders is that by taking a strong stand against Putin, we may lose him as a useful partner in the world arena. We shouldn't worry about that. History clearly demonstrates that in all major international trouble spots in which we accepted Putin as our partner, Russia has always taken the side of the West's enemy. Such has been the case with Iraq, North Korea, Syria and Iran.

It was only natural for Putin to use any invitation on our part as an opportunity to damage us. One should not expect anything different from a person with the background of a KGB officer, for whom America always has been enemy No. 1, and for whom anti-Americanism is a pillar of his power.

If America is Russia's enemy, Putin's Russia cannot be our ally. Whether we like it or not, such relations are reciprocal. And from an enemy we do not need help. We need only check its aggression. For that purpose we should take the following steps:

1. Publicly recognize that Putin is not our ally or partner, but rather our foe, and make this position clear to him and to the rest of the world.

2. Ensure that our demands to Russia be absolutely clear. Stop supporting separatists in Ukraine. We do not need Putin as a broker or peacemaker. Putin must completely get out of Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian politics.

3. Make clear that Putin's help is not needed in any other part of the world. Exclude Russia as our partner or as a mediator from any international arrangements and negotiations.

4. Reiterate our position of not accepting the annexation of Crimea. Demand that it be returned to Ukraine.

5. Stop propagating Putin's propaganda. Instead, counter it with all the power of America's media. Expand broadcasts by Radio Liberty and other radio stations.

6. Make it clear that we consider the "Russian World" policy a threat to world peace and stability. Insist that Russia officially renounce that doctrine and repeal supporting legislation as necessary conditions for Russia's readmission to the community of civilized nations.

7. To stop aggression against Ukraine and to prevent aggressions against other countries, make Russia pay a high price by introducing sector and other serious economic sanctions. Be ready to accept the cost of those sanctions.

8. Take immediate steps to reduce that cost and any dependence on Russia. Develop new energy sources and transportation systems in America and Europe.

9. Provide help, including military assistance, to those who are under immediate attack or potential aggression by Russia.

10. Revisit communism, an ideology that remains important in Russia as well as other countries. Educate new generations about its atrocities and bankrupt ideology.

Opponents of strong action against an aggressor wrongly equate political confrontation with war. They believe that admitting that the second largest nuclear power is our enemy would usher in another Cold War and make the situation much more dangerous.

History teaches us, however, that to ignore reality and appease our enemy is a more dangerous approach than to clearly articulate our principles and disagreements.

When in 1983 the Soviets shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Ronald Reagan denounced them as enemies of the United States and the entire world. Reagan's strong stand against the Soviet communism that threatened us for decades with nuclear war helped stop its expansion and eventually led to its complete capitulation. If we could stand against the mighty Soviet Union, we can manage Putin's much weaker Russia.

In February 2000, only two months into his presidency, Vladimir Putin presented one of his first state awards to Air Force Gen. Anatoly Kornukov. In 1983, Kornukov was commander of Sokol Airbase in Sakhalin. His order to the fighter pilot was: "Destroy the target!"

The target was Korean Air Lines Flight 007.

Friday, June 6, 2014

War Nerd: Eastern Ukraine is Putin's ploy to distract the West

Besides Gary Brecher's throwaway insults at Ukraine's interim government, (he obviously takes his cue from friend, russophile journalist Mark Ames), this article is worth reading.

Basically, Gary's thesis is that Putin's support for the uprisings in Eastern Ukraine is meant to distract Kyiv and the West from Putin's annexation of Crimea [emphasis mine]:

The new leader of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, understands what’s happening in Donetsk perfectly well: "Russia’s goal was, and is, to keep Ukraine so unstable that we accept everything that the Russians want," Poroshenko said in theinterview"I have no doubt that Putin could, with his direct influence, end the fighting."

Sure, Putin could end the fighting, but that would be a waste of combustible human material—and it’s a rule of Great Power politics that you never burn your straw dogs wastefully. Like Poroshenko says, Russia’s goal here is not to annex Eastern Ukraine—not at the moment, anyway. In the long run, perhaps. But it’s too soon to send tanks over the border with the Russian flag flying. Much better to stir this new Kashmir, let it simmer, use its misery.

"Crimea; that was worth keeping. Donetsk isn't." So Gary sums up Putin's reasoning.

The "brave" pro-Russian separatists, true believers in Great Mother Russia in Gary's narrative, are Laoist "straw dogs" that Putin is using now, but will let Ukrainian President Poroshenko burn. Putin will keep just enough of these straw dogs alive, supplied, hopeful, so that he can re-ignite the insurgency whenever it suits him.  

Gary for whatever reason insists that Russian spies and Spetznaz (special forces) are not involved in Ukraine, as if this is crucial. Personally I think they are; and nobody knows what is happening on Russia's side of the border. At a minimum, there is a massive coordination campaign.

More importantly, it has been proven that Russia is arming, supplying and paying these mercenaries, er, volunteers from Russian hinterlands like South Ossetia, Chechnya and Ingushetia, as well as Ukraine's near neighbor Rostov-on-Don (Vostok Battalion).  (Hello! Ordinary Russian "volunteers" don't possess convoys of Kamaz trucks, mortars, RPGs, the Russian military's latest automatic rifles, etc.)

It has been proven that Russia was making bank transfers and shipping cash on trains over the border; but Ukraine's government has mostly put a stop to it. Russia's risible proposal to the UN Security Council to create "humanitarian corridors" in Eastern Ukraine was an attempt to give Russia's supply lines to Eastern Ukraine an official UN mandate.  The rest of the Security Council, not to be fooled so easily, shot down Russia's proposal. (Gee, ya think maybe Russia had no credibility because it opposed humanitarian corridors in Syria, where Russia supports embattled dictator Assad against the rebels?)

Recent rebel attacks on border guard stations are likewise their attempt to keep open Russia's supply lines of matériel and fighters to Eastern Ukraine.

As a commenter on a news site remarked: "Cut the Russian terrorist pipeline. Blow up every bridge. Plow up every airport. Hunt the bandits down one by one. Post them on facebook, since they enjoy using this as a vehicle for terror."

I'm inclined to agree. Putin is not accepting the Ukrainian contingent of these murderous rebels (many of them criminals) into Russia's bosom; and they refuse to leave their home, Donbas. They can't be negotiated with; things have gone too far, they've killed too many. All that can be done is seal off the border, hunt them down, and hope the rest will stay in hiding.  

My guess is that, eventually, somebody from the Party of Regions, or another credible Eastern politician, will be tasked with negotiating a ceasefire.  Meanwhile, the Kyiv government will pass protections for the Russian language and start a process to give more autonomy to Ukraine's oblasts, thereby taking away the rebels's only political grievances.  Then the majority of Eastern Ukrainians' desire to return to "normal life," (naturally, as part of Ukraine), will overwhelm all other considerations.


By Gary Brecher
May 30, 2014 | Pando Daily