War Nerd: Eastern Ukraine is Putin's ploy to distract the West

Besides Gary Brecher's throwaway insults at Ukraine's interim government, (he obviously takes his cue from friend, russophile journalist Mark Ames), this article is worth reading.

Basically, Gary's thesis is that Putin's support for the uprisings in Eastern Ukraine is meant to distract Kyiv and the West from Putin's annexation of Crimea [emphasis mine]:

The new leader of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, understands what’s happening in Donetsk perfectly well: "Russia’s goal was, and is, to keep Ukraine so unstable that we accept everything that the Russians want," Poroshenko said in theinterview. "I have no doubt that Putin could, with his direct influence, end the fighting."

Sure, Putin could end the fighting, but that would be a waste of combustible human material—and it’s a rule of Great Power politics that you never burn your straw dogs wastefully. Like Poroshenko says, Russia’s goal here is not to annex Eastern Ukraine—not at the moment, anyway. In the long run, perhaps. But it’s too soon to send tanks over the border with the Russian flag flying. Much better to stir this new Kashmir, let it simmer, use its misery.

"Crimea; that was worth keeping. Donetsk isn't." So Gary sums up Putin's reasoning.

The "brave" pro-Russian separatists, true believers in Great Mother Russia in Gary's narrative, are Laoist "straw dogs" that Putin is using now, but will let Ukrainian President Poroshenko burn. Putin will keep just enough of these straw dogs alive, supplied, hopeful, so that he can re-ignite the insurgency whenever it suits him.  

Gary for whatever reason insists that Russian spies and Spetznaz (special forces) are not involved in Ukraine, as if this is crucial. Personally I think they are; and nobody knows what is happening on Russia's side of the border. At a minimum, there is a massive coordination campaign.

More importantly, it has been proven that Russia is arming, supplying and paying these mercenaries, er, volunteers from Russian hinterlands like South Ossetia, Chechnya and Ingushetia, as well as Ukraine's near neighbor Rostov-on-Don (Vostok Battalion).  (Hello! Ordinary Russian "volunteers" don't possess convoys of Kamaz trucks, mortars, RPGs, the Russian military's latest automatic rifles, etc.)

It has been proven that Russia was making bank transfers and shipping cash on trains over the border; but Ukraine's government has mostly put a stop to it. Russia's risible proposal to the UN Security Council to create "humanitarian corridors" in Eastern Ukraine was an attempt to give Russia's supply lines to Eastern Ukraine an official UN mandate.  The rest of the Security Council, not to be fooled so easily, shot down Russia's proposal. (Gee, ya think maybe Russia had no credibility because it opposed humanitarian corridors in Syria, where Russia supports embattled dictator Assad against the rebels?)

Recent rebel attacks on border guard stations are likewise their attempt to keep open Russia's supply lines of matériel and fighters to Eastern Ukraine.

As a commenter on a news site remarked: "Cut the Russian terrorist pipeline. Blow up every bridge. Plow up every airport. Hunt the bandits down one by one. Post them on facebook, since they enjoy using this as a vehicle for terror."

I'm inclined to agree. Putin is not accepting the Ukrainian contingent of these murderous rebels (many of them criminals) into Russia's bosom; and they refuse to leave their home, Donbas. They can't be negotiated with; things have gone too far, they've killed too many. All that can be done is seal off the border, hunt them down, and hope the rest will stay in hiding.  

My guess is that, eventually, somebody from the Party of Regions, or another credible Eastern politician, will be tasked with negotiating a ceasefire.  Meanwhile, the Kyiv government will pass protections for the Russian language and start a process to give more autonomy to Ukraine's oblasts, thereby taking away the rebels's only political grievances.  Then the majority of Eastern Ukrainians' desire to return to "normal life," (naturally, as part of Ukraine), will overwhelm all other considerations.

War Nerd: What’s happening in Eastern Ukraine is very simple, rational, and straightforward

By Gary Brecher

May 30, 2014 | Pando Daily

URL: http://pando.com/2014/05/30/war-nerd-whats-happening-in-eastern-ukraine-is-very-simple-rational-and-straightforward/

Ames: Putin is pursuing a 'Nixon Strategy'

I'm a bit late posting this. Mark Ames's main point, that "all politics is local," was made by moi  two weeks earlier than he in the post, "Ukraine's 'most dangerous 10 days'...and beyond."

Others have made Ames's point, that Putin's Ukraine policy is really all about boosting his popularity at home, not about defending Russia's interests:

This is a long background way of getting to the point that I want to make about understanding Putin by way of “all politics is local.” Putin lost the crucial big city yuppie class. They’re gone for good. There are a lot of ways an autocrat in a nominally democratic country can respond to that. Putin has chosen a new politics appealing to the Russian Silent Majority, and that means appealing to their resentments, heating up the culture wars between liberal Moscow and the slower, fearful masses in the rest of those eleven time zones. To exploit the huge differences between the Moscow liberals and yuppies opposed to Putin, and the rest of the country that resents them.

[...]

And that brings me to Putin and Ukraine. It goes without saying that Putin didn’t plan this crisis to happen — he already had his man in power in Kyiv. But Putin did exploit the situation, turning a major humiliating defeat in February into a massive political victory within Russia by doing what the Silent Majority would’ve wanted Putin to do: Redress grievances, air out resentments nonstop against the West and against west Ukraine fascists, and screw whatever the West thinks.

There’s not much comfort here for any side in the West when you frame Putin’s actions through local politics.

Indeed, respected Russian pundit Andrei Piontkovsky argues that Putin is fighting for his actual life (not just his political life) in Russia!  (Putin, says Piontkovsky, doesn't want to end up someday like Gaddafi.)

Although I do agree that "all politics is local," I don't agree with Ames 100%, especially when he throws the "fascist" label at all Ukrainians, or even the majority, who were on Maidan; and when he repeats the tired old lies that some indirect grants to journalists, pollsters and human rights groups somehow translated into a "Western-sponsored coup" in Ukraine. If only it were that easy! Then the USA would be handing out grants in a lot more countries!....

Sorry America, Ukraine isn’t all about you

By Mark Ames

May 14, 2014 | Pando Daily

URL: http://pando.com/2014/05/14/sorry-america-the-ukraine-isnt-all-about-you/