There are some really great points made in both of these reports (see below):
- Dictators like sanctions, because they help them stay in power. (Kim Jong Il and Fidel are still in power, for example; nor did sanctions interfere with Saddam's lavish lifestyle).
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard controls about 1/3 of Iran's state budget; and it rules the domestic black market economy which grows in direct proportion to trade sanctions. So, sanctions only increase its wealth and grip on power.
- Ahmadinejad is unpopular, but so far there are no alternative leaders for Iranians to support.
- Ahmadjinejad would like nothing more than to deflect attention away from his failures and the bad economy by blaming the USA.
- Iranians are young, educated, engaged with the outside world, and over 90 percent of the population is literate -- not a good recipe for a docile oppressed nation.
* And most important, any pre-emptive strike on Iran would cause Iranians, including most dissidents, to rally around the current regime, just as most peoples rally around their leaders in war. War would also give the regime an excuse to crack down even harder on dissident leaders, thereby impeding a democratic revolution from within.
Interview with Dr. Reza Aslan by Guy Raz
June 12, 2010 | All Things Considered on NPR
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