I remember reading several years ago an article about the eerie correlation between the use of leaded gasoline and national crime rates (outside the U.S., too), with about a 20-year lag time, and thinking this was a real bombshell in social science research.
But this discovery was dismissed even by the "lib'rul" mainstream media and never got a fair hearing. Why? Probably because this theory doesn't fit the traditional Right-Left / Nature v. Nurture debate about the causes of crime. This isn't about genes or upbringing, it's pure brain chemistry. It also deprives a lot of folks like the Rudy Giuliani's of the world a pet issue on which they made their careers. This is not to mention America's well-funded and lobbied prison-industrial complex that tells us that more prisons and tougher sentencing are to thank for lower crime rates.
Now MJ is back with more research that's been done in the meantime and it looks pretty legit. As journalist Kevin Drum points out, "econometrics consistently fails to explain most of the variation in crime rates." Levels of lead -- specifically Pb(CH2CH3)4 -- however, do pass the econometrics test.
So if this is true -- and it looks like it still is borne out by the data -- then what are some of the implications?
1. Here we have a huge case of economic spillover or "negative externalities," as economists like to call it, for when an economic decision costs society more than its private or "market" cost does. Innocent children end up paying for it; and then later, their innocent crime victims.
2. We have a lurking danger in our urban areas among populations least equipped to clean it up. The cost of a real, nationwide cleanup of houses with lead paint, lead pipes, and urban topsoil would be $20 billion per year for 20 years! However, MJ argues that the benefits in lower crime rates could be $200 billion per year, or a 20-to-1 return on investment.
3. Trying to clean this stuff up in the wrong way can make it worse, spreading lead dust that is currently "locked" into lead-based paint or up to 6 inches of urban topsoil.
4. This theory explains, at least partially, why murder rates in cities are always higher than in smaller towns... but also why the crime rates in big cities everywhere have been going down, down since the 1990s.
UPDATE (01.07.2013): A buddy tipped me off that one American engineer/chemist, Thomas Midgley, Jr., was responsible for both leaded gasoline and many CFCs that cause the greenhouse effect. Thanks, dick!
New research finds Pb is the hidden villain behind violent crime, lower IQs, and even the ADHD epidemic. And fixing the problem is a lot cheaper than doing nothing.
By Kevin Drum
January-February 2013 | Mother Jones
