His glee and smug self-assurance reveal a dangerous naivety reminiscent of the neocons' bluster and utopian predictions prior to invading Iraq.
Remember all those Katiusha rockets that rained down on Israel from Hizbollah-controlled Lebanon, while the Israelis could do nothing to stop the attacks besides blow up civilian's homes? There are more of Katiushas left -- thousands more. And that would be just the beginning.
If Iran really is the world's #1 exporter of terror, imagine what would happen if Iran decided its only option, faced with a U.S.-Israeli attack, was to increase its "exports"? Do you really think we could stop all or even most of those attacks? Do you think that even regime change in Iran would stop Iranian-sponsored and -inspired terror attacks worldwide? Has Iraq taught us nothing? Saddam is dead and in the ground; but his preparations prior to our invasion, which we announced far in advance, created the "insurgency" we're still fighting there today.
Iran has had much more time to prepare for the invasion; it has more resources; it has more allies and sympathetic countries; and it has learned all the right lessons from Iraq about how to kill Americans.
God help us -- and Israel, and Europe -- if Bush hauls off and attacks Iran. It better be OUR backs against the wall that makes him do such a dangerous, risky thing.
On 10/13/07, wrote:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From:
Date: Oct 12, 2007 11:28 PM
Subject: SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN
To:
If the following story is true, this is definitely good news.
P
> SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN
> Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler Wednesday, 19 September 2007
>
> One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the
Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in
Tehran in a state of complete amazement. "Everyone in the government
and military can only talk of one thing,"
he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me,
over and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?'
'When will the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in
a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?'
on and on,
endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic." And that
was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The
mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in
Syria.
>
> On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a
devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.
Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an
extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive
speculation in the
world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in
yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.
>
> Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is
not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.
Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war
perpetrated on their soil?
>
> The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the
Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most
Advanced In World.Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree,
spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in
aircraft interception technology." Syria now "possesses the most
crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200
antiaircraft batteries of different types," some
of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before
being introduced into Russian operation service."
>
> While you're digesting that, take a look at a map of Syria. Notice
how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is
not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian
airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian
super-hyper-sophisticated cutting
edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place
on September6th. Nothing.
El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no
indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian
airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie
assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so
completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded. Now you
see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they
were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are
defenseless. As in naked.
>
> Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as
nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in
the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who
are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the
terror masters in Tehranout of their wits is fun. It's so much fun,
in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the
Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has
been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun
too. On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner
announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over
Iran's nuclear program."
>
> All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On
Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles"
will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran
by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief
Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their
(Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any
attack." A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows
is a bluff.
So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a
thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs'
cages more than a yawn and a laugh. Yet no matter how much fun this
sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure
build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and
soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal,
that the regime will implode from within. But make no mistake: an
all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that
hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6
attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.
>
> So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was
North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff
to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real
nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's
Nuke Test Is Such
Good News, October 2006).
>
> Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range
Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack
on Israel.
>
> A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio
weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US
invasion of April 2003. But the identity of the target is not the
story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that
target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during
the attack. Doing so made the attackan incredible success. Syria is
shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies
are fun.
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