WAR ALERT! Cheney: 'We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon'

As Iran shows no signs of backing down and halting its uranium-enrichment centrifuges, Cheney's warning couldn't be clearer: the Bush Administration intends to attack Iran.

Meanwhile, Bush said at a press conference last week: "We've got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel. So I've told people that, if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

That statement is less clear, but it could still be interpreted by Iran as a threat from the United States.

Why all the hurry? Why all the urgency? It's not because Iran is close to making a nuclear bomb. It's the end of Bush's lame duck presidency that's speeding up the war planning. The Bushies know that the next Administration can't be counted on to attack Iran pre-emptively. Just like with Saddam after 9/11, they see a window of opportunity to "take out" another enemy who's been on their hit list since the 1980s.

Don't be fooled again!

All this urgency is being driven by the U.S. presidential election cycle. The Int'l. Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Iran is still 3-8 years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon; the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Iran is 3-5 years away if they could manage to make weapons-grade highly-enriched uranium (HEU), which is doubtful. More likely, the IISS says, Iran is 10-15 years away, depending on the number of its functioning centrifuges and its intentions.

But prediction is an extremely tricky business.

In 2006 the CIA estimated that Iran was 5-10 years away from being able to make a nuke. But in 1993 the CIA estimated that Iran was 8-10 years from acquiring nuclear weapons. It's been 15 years since that dire prediction, and according to the experts Iran is still... 3-15 years away. Bottom line: We should be veeery careful about whose estimate we choose before deciding to attack a sovereign nation that has not threatened us.

... And Bush has a lousy record of assessing the threat from WMD.