Showing posts with label oligarchy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oligarchy. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Top TILIS posts of 2014

The following list is not exactly precise, since all-powerful Google's Blogger platform doesn't give me an easy way to count for the year, but more or less, these were my most popular posts of 2014. Gratifyingly, many were not simply re-posts, but were hardcore analysis by moi, Mr. JT.

So here goes, in chronological order:















"VIDEO: Russians interrogate female pilot captured INSIDE UKRAINE (subtitles)" -- I'M STILL SURPRISED HOW POPULAR THIS RE-POST HAS BEEN.












Granted, a large number of my posts this year were about Ukraine and Russia, and that's no accident, since yours truly speaks Russian and Ukrainian and has had some very personal experience there. I thought that my East-meets-West perspective was lacking in the U.S. blogosphere and could perhaps help others to understand what was happening there.

Case in point, back home I even gave a half-hour seminar to the local Tea Party group about the crisis in Ukraine! They were attentive, polite and grateful. And I kept it to the facts, ma'am, no Obama or lib'rul bullcrap.

That said, here are a few posts that I enjoyed and wished had received more attention:







"Many Israelis don't know a single Palestinian" --  SO THEY'RE EVEN MORE CUT-OFF THAN MOST WHITE PEOPLE IN THE U.S. WHO HAVE AT LEAST ONE BLACK FRIEND.








Happy New Year, everybody!

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

The Duh files: Study reveals U.S. is an oligarchy

Well knock me over with a feather!  


By Hamilton Nolan
April 15, 2014 | Gawker

new study by researchers from Princeton and Northwestern Universities finds that America's government policies reflect the wishes of the rich and of powerful interest groups, rather than the wishes of the majority of citizens.

The researchers examined close to 1,800 U.S. policy changes in the years between 1981 and 2002; then, they compared those policy changes with the expressed preferences of the median American, at the 50th percentile of income; with affluent Americans, at the 90th percentile of income; and with the position of powerful interest and lobbying groups.

The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence. Our results provide substantial support for theories of Economic Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism...

Recent research by Larry Bartels and by one of the present authors (Gilens), which explicitly brings the preferences of "affluent" Americans into the analysis along with the preferences of those lower in the income distribution, indicates that the apparent connection between public policy and the preferences of the average citizen may indeed be largely or entirely spurious.

The theory of Economic Elite Domination is fairly self-explanatory. The theory of Biased Pluralism holds that policy outcomes "tend to tilt towards the wishes of corporations and business and professional associations." In essence, the researchers found that government policy changes are correlated with the wishes of the wealthy and with interest groups, but not with the wishes of the average American—even though the whole idea of "Democracy" is to ensure that the wishes of the majority tend to carry the day.

The study notes that the position of the median American and the position of the affluent American are often the same; therefore, regular people tend to think that their political interests are being represented when they see the triumph of some political position that they agree with. In fact, the researchers say, this is a mere coincidence. Yes, the average American will see their interests represented—as long as their interests align with the interests of the wealthy.

Furthermore, the study found that the positions of powerful interest groups are "not substantially correlated with the preferences of average citizens," meaning that to the extent that special interests groups have political power, they are driving our government's decision making process away from the interests of the average American. Our current system of a competing thicket of special interest groups all fighting for influence is not equal to a true representation of the wishes of the citizenry. "Whatever the reasons," the study says, "all mass-based groups taken together simply do not add up, in aggregate, to good representatives of the citizenry as a whole. Business-oriented groups do even worse, with a modest negative over-all correlation."

Whether or not the majority of Americans will ever tire of being systematically marginalized remains an open question.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Simon Johnson: U.S. has a growth crisis

Note at the end that Simon Johnson uses the "o"-word to describe today's America; and he's not some flaming liberal, he's an MIT professor and former chief economist at the IMF.


By Simon Johnson
August 15, 2011 | Bloomberg

The U.S. has a fiscal crisis, but not the one that everyone is talking about. Standard and Poor's proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the U.S. still has the world's preeminent reserve currency. When shocks hit -- and investors have no idea who or what might be next in line for a downgrade -- they buy U.S. government securities.

Downgrades don't usually have this effect. For example, if S&P or other rating companies downgraded France, that would set off a crisis within the euro region -- pushing up interest rates on French government debt, undermining euro-area banks, and perhaps putting pressure on the fabric of the European Union itself. With a one-notch downgrade of the U.S. government, on the other hand, S&P inadvertently managed to lower the U.S.'s borrowing costs, both at the federal level and for homeowners who refinanced their mortgages.

The U.S.'s fiscal problem is not that the market questions the country's ability to pay its debts. The willingness to pay was clearly proved by the outcome of the debt-ceiling debate, when even a majority of Tea Party adherents in the U.S. House of Representatives voted to lift the ceiling (though it would have passed without their votes). We most definitely do not have the kind of solvency crisis experienced by some emerging markets and now, for the first time, parts of Western Europe.

Growth Crisis

Instead, our crisis has two dimensions. First, we have a growth crisis. My MIT colleague, Daron Acemoglu, in a blog post on the Harvard Business Review website, makes the point vividly. In his view, one percentage point extra growth per year for the next 20 years would fix the U.S.'s budget problems. If we could manage to increase our growth rate from 2 percent a year to, say, 3 percent over the long haul, that would greatly boost average incomes, as well as tax revenue.

Acemoglu also argues that the U.S. economy can grow through innovation, but only if U.S. policies foster more basic scientific research and more effective commercialization of technology. The U.S. also needs to improve its patent system and allow more skilled foreign workers into the country, Acemoglu says.

The general policy mood may be shifting in this direction. Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, and Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, made similar points in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last week. Bush's rhetoric was suitably vague for someone who is likely to run for president in 2016. Bush and Warsh felt the need to repeat the mantra of the day, "Cutting spending is essential," and then quickly made the right point: "But we will never cut our way to prosperity."

Income Distribution

Restoring growth is not easy because of a second, more debilitating element -- a paralyzing fight over the distribution of income, in which powerful people can block the government from doing anything sensible if that is against their narrow interest.

This dynamic can be seen in the debate over who will foot the bill for the 2008 financial crisis, which caused a deep recession that pushed up the federal government's medium-term debt -- what we should expect by 2018 for example -- by about 50 percent of gross domestic product. (You can check the Congressional Budget Office numbers yourself; start with points 9 and 10 in my testimony to a July 13 joint hearing of the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means committees. The testimony was not refuted.)

Someone Pays

To control future debt levels, someone has to pay for that fiasco. But people in high-income brackets, working with various allies, have dug a brilliant defense against tax increases in the form of the Tea Party. Backed by 30 percent of the population, this group exploits the broad design of the U.S. Constitution, which gives well-organized minorities an effective veto power over major policy changes. The result is that, instead of letting President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the rich expire, we are headed for deep spending cuts that disproportionately affect the less-well-off.

More generally, powerful lobbies have amassed great privilege in the political system, and they can't be easily moved from their positions. For example, Jeb Bush and Warsh say, quite reasonably, "If banks are 'too big to fail,' they are too big. They must be allowed to succeed or fail on their own merit, without any hint of government support." But there is precisely no chance that Congress, the Federal Reserve or the executive branch will end the subsidies that undergird big banks, and that keep them in business through essentially free insurance against downside risk. Watch Bank of America in the weeks ahead for the next demonstration of what it means to be too big to fail.

Innovation and Growth

Acemoglu and James Robinson of Harvard University have a forthcoming book, "Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty," that attributes economic success to political institutions that support innovation and growth. (Disclosure: I had nothing to do with writing the book, but they draw on research the three of us did jointly.)

The U.S. has done well over 200-plus years in most of the areas Acemoglu and Robinson stress. But the country now seems to be in the grip of an oligarchy that is determined to protect its position at the expense of spending for the public good on things like education and scientific research. Nations frequently fail when powerful interest groups block change. If this is the U.S. situation, it's more serious than any rating company's view on debt levels.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Sanders: Estate tax on super-rich lowers deficit, prevents hereditary oligarchy

By Bernie Sanders
July 22, 2010 | The Nation

The American people are hurting. As a result of the greed, recklessness and illegal behavior on Wall Street, millions of Americans have lost their jobs, homes, life savings and their ability to get a higher education. Today, some 22 percent of our children live in poverty, and millions more have become dependent on food stamps for their food.

And while the Great Wall Street Recession has devastated the middle class, the truth is that working families have been experiencing a decline for decades. During the Bush years alone, from 2000-2008, median family income dropped by nearly $2,200 and millions lost their health insurance. Today, because of stagnating wages and higher costs for basic necessities, the average two-wage-earner family has less disposable income than a one-wage-earner family did a generation ago. The average American today is underpaid, overworked and stressed out as to what the future will bring for his or her children. For many, the American dream has become a nightmare.

But, not everybody is hurting. While the middle class disappears and poverty increases the wealthiest people in our country are not only doing extremely well, they are using their wealth and political power to protect and expand their very privileged status at the expense of everyone else. This upper-crust of extremely wealthy families are hell-bent on destroying the democratic vision of a strong middle-class which has made the United States the envy of the world. In its place they are determined to create an oligarchy in which a small number of families control the economic and political life of our country.

The 400 richest families in America, who saw their wealth increase by some $400 billion during the Bush years, have now accumulated $1.27 trillion in wealth. Four hundred families! During the last fifteen years, while these enormously rich people became much richer their effective tax rates were slashed almost in half. While the highest-paid 400 Americans had an average income of $345 million in 2007, as a result of Bush tax policy they now pay an effective tax rate of 16.6 percent, the lowest on record.

Last year, the top twenty-five hedge fund managers made a combined $25 billion but because of tax policy their lobbyists helped write, they pay a lower effective tax rate than many teachers, nurses and police officers. As a result of tax havens in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and elsewhere, the wealthy and large corporations are evading some $100 billion a year in U.S. taxes. Warren Buffett, one of the richest people on earth, has often commented that he pays a lower effective tax rate than his secretary.

But it's not just wealthy individuals who grotesquely manipulate the system for their benefit. It's the multinational corporations they own and control. In 2009, Exxon Mobil, the most profitable corporation in history made $19 billion in profits and not only paid no federal income tax—they actually received a $156 million refund from the government. In 2005, one out of every four large corporations in the United States paid no federal income taxes while earning $1.1 trillion in revenue.

But, perhaps the most outrageous tax break given to multi-millionaires and billionaires happened this January when the estate tax, established in 1916, was repealed for one year as a result of President Bush's 2001 tax legislation. This tax applies only to the wealthiest three-tenths of 1 percent of our population.

This is what Teddy Roosevelt, a leading proponent of the estate tax, said in 1910. "The absence of effective state, and, especially, national restraint upon unfair money-getting has tended to create a small class of enormously wealthy and economically powerful men, whose chief object is to hold and increase their power. The prime need is to change the conditions which enable these men to accumulate power which is not for the general welfare that they should hold or exercise.… Therefore, I believe in a…graduated inheritance tax on big fortunes, properly safeguarded against evasion and increasing rapidly in amount with the size of the estate." And that's what we've had for the last ninety-five years—until 2010.

Today, not content with huge tax breaks on their income; not content with massive corporate tax loopholes; not content with trade laws enabling them to outsource the jobs of millions of American workers to low-wage countries and not content with tax havens around the world, the ruling elite and their lobbyists are working feverishly to either eliminate the estate tax or substantially lower it. If they are successful at wiping out the estate tax, as they came close to doing in 2006 with every Republican but two voting to do, it would increase the national debt by over $1 trillion during a ten-year period. At a time when we already have a $13 trillion debt, enormous unmet needs and the highest level of wealth inequality in the industrialized world, it is simply obscene to provide more tax breaks to multi-millionaires and billionaires.

That is why I have introduced the Responsible Estate Tax Act (S.3533). This legislation would raise $318 billion over the next decade by establishing a graduated inheritance tax on estates over $3.5 million retroactive to this year. This bill ensures that the wealthiest 0.3 percent of Americans pays their fair share of estate taxes, while making sure that 99.7 percent of Americans never have to pay a dime when they lose a loved one. It also makes certain that the overwhelming majority of family farmers and small businesses never have to pay an estate tax.

This legislation must be passed because, with a $13 trillion national debt and huge unmet needs, we cannot afford more tax breaks for millionaire and billionaire families. But even more importantly, it must be passed because the United States must not become an oligarchy in which a handful of wealthy and powerful families control the destiny of our nation. Too many people, from the inception of this country, have struggled and died to maintain our democratic vision. We owe it to them and to our children to maintain it.