Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Peter Thiel: 'Financials broken; bottom years away'

I don't usually comment on the markets, but I was shocked by Peter Thiel's outspoken predictions in an interview with the Wall Street Journal Report on Monday. For example:

  • "The bottom is years away in financials;"
  • Housing still 30% overvalued;
  • "The entire business model for financial companies is broken;"
  • "Stay away from financials for the next 2-3 years;"
  • Oil will be at $150 per barrel;
  • Gold will be at $1,400 - $1,500 per ounce;
  • "The emerging market boom [except in China] is a mirage;"
  • "Continued de-coupling [of the U.S. economy from the world economy] and probably [U.S.] recession;"
  • Oil profits will not be invested in the U.S., but in China and emerging markets (sustaining the emerging markets "bubble" for at least a few years);
  • Invest in tech stocks; avoid anything that is leveraged.

Thiel went from nothing to billions, investing in PayPal and Facebook, so he knows his stuff.

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