I know it's almost obscene to talk about the 2012 election already, but... I couldn't resist sharing this Rasmussen poll of Republicans, because it's great news for Obama: none of the top 5 GOP candidates holds any public office, therefore they will get almost no attention from non-GOP voters; and Mike Huckabee is the frontrunner with 29% support, including "huge support" from Evangelical Christians, who hold veto power over the GOP nomination. (The 6th-ranked candidate is Rush Limbaugh, if you count the 11% of Republicans who consider him the leader of their party.)
Note that Rep. Ron Paul, whose bill to audit the Fed is quickly become this year's most popular piece of bi-partisan legislation, is not even in the running. But don't expect that to last. He has retained his huge netroots support and his Internet fundraising infrastructure. And unlike the rest of the pack, who spend their time writing books about themselves and then doing the speech circuit, Ron Paul is actually doing stuff. But he'll never win, regardless -- the Evangelicals and neocons will make sure of that.
I almost feel sorry for the GOP, because they're in such a rut: The contenders can't get their party's nomination unless they win over the Jesus freaks and the rabid anti-immigration mob, but in doing so, they shock and alienate the rest of the electorate. Meanwhile, there is a niche candidate who "owns" each important issue (religion, anti-immigration, small government, etc.) who can out-flank anybody, like Romney, who tries to fight on all fronts at once.
All this is adding up to a repeat of 2008, when everybody and their grandma ran for the GOP presidential nomination and nobody cared. The difference in 2012 is that there looks to be no "establishment" candidate whom everyone can grousingly get behind after all the internecine blood has been spilled. The Republicans will divide and conquer themselves again; and meanwhile Obama, even if he is a mediocre sellout as President, will coast to re-election.
October 17, 2009 Newsmax.com
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