Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Reagan's 1981 recession v. W's Great Recession

Let's compare the 1981-82 recession to the Great Recession:
  • Duration:  16 months vs. 18 months
  • GDP:  -2.7 % vs. -4.1% *
  • Consumption:  +0.1 % vs. -2.3 %
  • Investment:  -9.3 % vs. -23.4 %
* The biggest drop in GDP since WWII.

Here are some more measures in 1981-82 vs. the Great Recession:
  • Personal income: +7 % vs. -1 %
  • Industrial production:  -8.6 % vs. -12 %
  • Dow Jones Avg.:  +9 % vs. -22 %
  • Housing prices:  +2.2 % vs. - 5.7%
  • Rate of foreclosures:  0.67% (max) vs. 4.3 % (2009)

Regarding interest rates, you can thank the Fed, which intentionally targeted a high interest rate to kill inflation.  With 11% inflation the 19% interest rate in 1980 was not so high in fact.

Regarding unemployment, it grew more during the Great Recession (5.1 percent) than during the 1981 recession (3.6 percent).  Unemployment rose for 22 straight months during the Great Recession, the longest period since WWII.  It was also the first recession when all 50 states reported increased unemployment, meaning you couldn't simply move to find work in another state.  Long-term unemployment was also worse during the Great Recession: 5.6 million vs. 2.6 million; and in October 2009, the average length of unemployment was 26.9 months -- the longest on record.

Finally, the Great Recession was also (and still is, in some countries) a global recession.  

So I don't want to hear any more about how all it would take is a President Reagan to pull us out of the Great Recession.

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